COVID-19 / Malicious Medical Quackery
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If you live in Israel or Palestine or know someone who does, I need your help to understand what is going on with respect to COVID deaths in the two countries.
MAR 23, 2025
Executive summary
This is one of the most stunning “natural experiments” regarding the efficacy of the COVID vaccine in preventing deaths.
Both Israel and Palestine tracked COVID mortality before and after the vaccine rollout (which was nearly all to Israel).
Yet if you look at the cumulative COVID deaths, it “looks” like there was no intervention at all because there was no slope discontinuity that you would expect to see on each COVID wave with a vaccine that is supposedly highly protective against death.
Palestine has a younger population, but the cumulative mortality slopes during the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine COVID waves tracked each other.
I think it means the vaccine didn’t work and this is a smoking gun.
ChatGPT insists that there must be a confounder and suggests that it was because Palestine had high COVID cases before the rollout and acquired natural immunity.
I checked this out and it appears to be false, but it could be due to under-reporting of cases in Palestine relative to Israel.
Israel vs. Palestine COVID mortality was the same despite vastly different COVID protocols. It’s “as if” the vaccine didn’t work!?!
If you live in Israel or Palestine or know someone who does, I need your help to understand what is going on with respect to COVID deaths in the two countries.
Cumulative COVID deaths matched in Israel and Palestine both before and after vaccine rollout. How is that possible if the vaccine was so effective?
Executive summary
This is one of the most stunning “natural experiments” regarding the efficacy of the COVID vaccine in preventing deaths.
Both Israel and Palestine tracked COVID mortality before and after the vaccine rollout (which was nearly all to Israel).
Yet if you look at the cumulative COVID deaths, it “looks” like there was no intervention at all because there was no slope discontinuity that you would expect to see on each COVID wave with a vaccine that is supposedly highly protective against death.
Palestine has a younger population, but the cumulative mortality slopes during the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine COVID waves tracked each other.
I think it means the vaccine didn’t work and this is a smoking gun.
ChatGPT insists that there must be a confounder and suggests that it was because Palestine had high COVID cases before the rollout and acquired natural immunity.
I checked this out and it appears to be false, but it could be due to under-reporting of cases in Palestine relative to Israel.
I need your insights
Can you help me shed some light on what is going on?
Specifically:
- Did Palestine have more COVID cases than Israel and it was just under-reported?
- Did Palestine have fewer COVID deaths per capita than Israel or was it due to reporting differences?
- Anything you observed that might shed some light on these results?
The slopes pre- and post-COVID were identical which strongly suggests that the vaccine did nothing mortality wise. It’s hard to believe that a confounder was magically able to exactly match the slopes on each variant after the vaccine rolled out especially since Delta and Omicron had different case fatality rates.
There is data from the UK showing that the vaccines increased cases in the vaccinated by 2x to 3x which appears to be accompanied by a 1/3 lower fatality rate if you were vaccinated so the vaccine was a net zero benefit in terms of fatalities and explains why so many studies found a death benefit when there wasn’t one. Also, the unvaccinated group when a population is highly vaccinated can have an absurdly high non-COVID all-cause mortality (like 3x higher) so that’s a factor as well.
Summary
This is one of the most stunning graphs of the pandemic.
It’s either a huge smoking gun or a red herring.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
[Ed.: (commented submitted) There are no mortality rates in Palestine, Steve, because there is no such place. Never was, and never will be. Google it. The whole premiss of your question is faulty! The question should have been titled ‘Arabs in Israel vs. Israeli Covid mortality’. Words matter, as you well know. Correct yourself.] [“Palestine”? Say what! Gimme freakin’ break, already! …And Kirsch is Jewish, too!]
[Ed. Mr. Kirsch replied promptly: “Palestine is a complex issue. OWID calls it palestine.” (I looked it up and OWID is ‘Our World in Data’ ourworldindata.org)
