ISRAEL (IINO)
IRAN UPDATE, AUGUST 4, 2024 by Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, Siddhant Kishore, and Nicholas Carl
Aug 4, 2024 Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET – ISW Press
The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel in response to Israel killing Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. CTP-ISW previously outlined this scenario as one of the most dangerous courses of action that Iran could pursue.[1] Iranian state media reported on August 4 that Iran and the Axis of Resistance will conduct a “quadrilateral operation” against Israel.[2] The operation would reportedly involve Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducting coordinated strikes on Israel at the same time as Iranian forces. Iranian state media added that Hezbollah seeks to attack Israel to retaliate for Israel killing a senior Hezbollah officer in Beirut on July 30, while the Houthis seek to retaliate against Israel for the IDF airstrike on July 20 that hit Houthi military targets in al Hudaydah, Yemen.[3] The leader of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, Akram al Kaabi, published an image on August 4 signaling his intent to participate in an attack on Israel.[4] Three anonymous US and Israeli officials told Axios on August 4 that Iran and the Axis of Resistance could conduct their coordinate attack as soon as August 5.[5]
Iran and the Axis of Resistance will probably conduct an attack that is more escalatory than the drone and missile attack that Iran conducted against Israel in April 2024. Iran and its allies fired around 170 one-way attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles at Israel in the April 2024 attack. Iran designed this strike package of over 300 projectiles to inflict serious damage on Israel and sought to thereby establish deterrence. But the United States, Israel, and their allies intercepted the vast majority of projectiles, so that the Iranian attack did significantly less damage than Tehran intended.[6]
Iran could modify the April 2024 attack model in at least four ways to increase the likelihood of inflicting serious damage on Israel.
[Ed.: Excellent article!]
Antisemitic Political Commentator [Candice Owens] Links Star of David to Child Sacrifices [VIDEO]
August 4, 2024 JBN News – Antisemitic political commentator Candace Owens has come under fire again after questioning the origins of the Star of David.
On her YouTube show last week, Owens claimed that the Star of David only became associated with Judaism in recent centuries, suggesting European Jews adopted it as a counterpart to the Christian cross. She asserted its prominence grew with the rise of the Zionist movement in the late 1800s.
Challenging mainstream historical understanding, Owens proposed a more contentious origin for the symbol. She linked it to the “Star of Remphan,” which she described as belonging to a pagan deity worshipped by Canaanites and associated with child sacrifice. Owens further connected these symbols to demons and sorcery, citing dubious internet sources and Wikipedia for her libelous claims.
Owens is no stranger to peddling her antisemitic vitriol to her massive following. In a June episode of her show, she made waves by stating, “It seems like America is being held hostage by Israel,” acknowledging the potential backlash but asserting, “I don’t care.”
When it comes to the Holocaust, Owens ranted about how Hitler “factually and statistically” was not the greatest evil person of his time.
“What is it about Hitler? Why is he the most evil? Well, the first thing people would say is ‘ethnic cleansing almost took place.’ And I offer back, ‘You mean like we actually did to the Germans?’”
She infamously described Nazi doctor Josef Mengele’s experiments as “bizarre propaganda.”
“The idea that they just cut a human up and then sewed them back together. Why would you do that? Even if you’re the most evil person in the world, that’s a tremendous waste of time and supplies,” she said.”
Media literacy advocates stress the importance of fact-checking and critical thinking when consuming content from online influencers. With over 5 million followers across various social media platforms, Candace is directly contributing to the surge of antisemitism and Holocaust denialism.
🚨 ISRAELI PM NETANYAHU AND CABINET TO REMAIN IN BUNKER; ISRAELI AND US LEADERSHIP TAKE EMERGENCY MEASURES AMID HEIGHTENED TENSIONS 🚨
[4:23 PM ET, 8/4/2024] +972 50-997-7784 ISRAEL REALTIME:
‼️Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will stay at the Kirya tonight, accompanied by his cabinet. The Kirya houses a bunker system built to withstand a nuclear attack, equipped with satellite communication systems and sufficient food storage for at least a month. It can accommodate senior Israeli leaders and military leadership.
‼️In response to recent developments, Israeli Minister of Energy Eli Cohen convened an emergency meeting, deciding to increase coal and diesel stocks.
‼️The Israeli General Staff has ordered reinforcements for forces affiliated with the Northern Front Command and has raised the alert level.
‼️The Israeli top brass is preparing for a response that could last at least three days
‼️US President Joe Biden has been briefed on the Iranian response. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Blinken is currently holding a phone call with the Iraqi Prime Minister.
‼️In a related move, the UK has evacuated the families of staff members and non-essential staff from its embassy in Lebanon with other Countries expected to follow suit.
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WATCH: CITIZENS FLEE LEBANON WHILE THEY STILL CAN [VIDEO] by Micha Gefen
August 4, 2024 – In the shadow of the looming full scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanese citizens continue to make their way to Beirut’s international airport in hopes of fleeing to safety.
While it is still not known how wide of a war is coming to the region, Iran and its proxies have made it clear – they are preparing to attack Israel on multiple fronts as a retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah’s number two in Beirut, Fuad Shukr and Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this week.
Israel has made it clear that they will respond immediately and severely to any organized attack by Iran and its proxies. Although Hezbollah has been attacking Israel since October 8th, it has kept its attack to the upper Galilee and the Golan. Hezbollah has now made it clear that it will direct its attacks to far deeper locations and Israeli civilian centers like Tel Aviv and Haifa.
The region stands on the precipice of full war that may bring in Turkey, Russia, and the Iraqi Shiite militias besides the actors already involved. The Lebanese citizens fleeing their country know what this means and for Lebanon. Lebanon as a country barely exists now – if there is regional war – it will never truly exist again.
When Egypt said recently that the regional structure is on the verge of collapse – they were not lying, its only a matter of time and that time is approaching very fast.
Absurd connections: Israel, North Korea and nuclear war Louis René Beres
If North Korea became a party to nuclear threats against Israel, Israel’s actual war would always be against Iran, and North Korea would be operating against Israel solely as Iran’s nuclear surrogate. Opinion.
Credo quia absurdum, “I believe because it is absurd.” – Tertullian
Aug 4, 2024, 7:59 AM (GMT+3) – For conspicuous reasons, the likelihood of direct war between Israel and Iran is “high.”[1] What remains inconspicuous is that such a war could quickly or incrementally involve North Korean military assets. Even if Israel were able to keep Iran pre-nuclear, an already nuclear North Korea could still multiply and magnify Iranian aggressions. In this scenario, North Korea would function as a witting surrogate of Iran.
What arguments could support such a portentous conclusion? In a worst case scenario, Israel would find itself facing a direct military conflict with Iran’s state ally in Pyongyang, one in which Israel could lose its presumptive upper hand during competitive risk-taking. Any such loss would be the result of Israel no longer being the sole nuclear power during crisis escalations. In strategic parlance, this signifies a prospective Israeli loss of “escalation dominance.”[2]
Such calculations would be perplexing, and not for the intellectually faint-at-heart.[3] At the same time, going forward, purposeful Israeli solutions could be discoverable only by gifted strategic thinkers, not by politicians, pundits or the assorted marionettes of artificial intelligence. Regarding incentives for North Korea to undertake potentially grave risks on behalf of Iran, the most recognizable encouragements would coalesce around Iranian oil.
If Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthi terror attacks on Israel should lead to direct and protracted warfare between Israel and Iran, North Korean involvement could more immediately immobilize Israel. In nuclear terms, Israel would likely be in an unfavorable position to engage Iran’s PRK proxy because Israel is a “50 target state.” Even in its still pre-nuclear iteration and without tangible North Korean backing, Iran would be a “1000+ target state” with long-range strike capabilities.
Israel could soon have to face a newly-nuclear Iran and an already-nuclear North Korea simultaneously.[4] And this is to say nothing about variously possible Russian and/or Chinese interventions undertaken for Iran, or about plausible Indian and/or Pakistani involvements.
Pakistan, a nuclear Sunni Islamic state, is improving its ties to Shiite Iran while remaining supportive of Sunni Saudi Arabia. Nuclear India, the long-time foe of Pakistan, is also strengthening its ties to Iran by way of Chabahar port.[5] Pakistan has openly embraced a “counterforce” or warfighting strategy of nuclear deterrence, one that could confront Israeli decision-makers with altogether unprecedented existential hazards.
In the final analysis, it could be left up to the United States to support Israel’s survival against Iranian, North Korean and potentially Pakistani aggressions. This conclusion would identify scenarios in which Iran-backed jihadist terror attacks[6] on Israel wind up retrospectively as the original precipitants of a regional or global nuclear war. Presently, Iranian surrogate forces are visibly operational in all Palestinian Arab territories (especially Gaza), Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Mali and Somalia.
IDF prosecution requests to extend remand of reservists in custody over claims of abusing prisoner
Protests planned after the arrest of the reservist was met with riots as protesters broke into Israeli army bases
August 04, 2024 at 05:47 AM i24NEWS – Israel’s military prosecution on Sunday requested to remand until Wednesday five reservist soldiers suspected of abusing a Palestinian terrorist in the Sde Teiman detention facility, citing the need to complete its investigation.
The prosecution requested that three more soldiers be held for several more hours to complete their investigation.
Another soldier was released last week.
The Honenu legal aid organization, meanwhile, requested all eight be immediately freed.
The families and friends of the reservists are planning a protest in solidarity with them in the early afternoon.
This comes after nine Israeli reservists serving in Sde Teiman were arrested last week, following allegations that they were involved in forcible sodomy of a terrorist held prisoner there.
Images of military police with covered faces entering the army base and apprehending the soldiers garnered outrage last Monday among right-wing politicians and activists, who descended on Sde Teiman before breaking in.
In central Israel’s Beit Lid, the military police’s headquarters, similar protests occurred later in the evening, drawing outrage as they descended into rioting.
August 3, 2024 @ 9:27 p.m. ET 𝗜𝗦𝗥𝗔𝗘𝗟 𝗟𝗜𝗩𝗘 𝗡𝗘𝗪𝗦 – The F-22 is considered such an advanced air superiority fighter that the USA refuses to sell it to any other country.
Israelis accept the breach in relations with the Biden administration Caroline Glick
They are becoming increasingly aware of the central role it is playing in the effort to demonize and criminalize the nation, its leaders and its soldiers. Op-ed.
Aug 3, 2024, 8:56 PM (GMT+3) (JNS) – Israelis hunkered down Thursday night and braced for Iran’s promised retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah and Hamas terror masters Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh. As they did so, Channel 14 broadcast the results of a Direct Polls survey of the public’s perspective on Israel’s strategic condition and imperatives. The results were stunning.
The poll included three questions. The first related to the public’s staying power in the current war, asking, “How long are you willing to live with the war situation?”
Some 22% of Israelis said they have had enough and want the war to end. Another 14% said they are willing to keep the war going for a few more weeks or months. And 64% of Israelis said they would support fighting the war “for as long as it takes.”
The poll then moved to the public’s assessment of whether the July 31 assassinations of the Hezbollah and Hamas kingpins would set back or advance the completion of the war. Of the answers, 21% of Israelis said the assassinations would prolong the war; 10% had no opinion; and 69% of Israelis said the assassinations expedited the completion of the war.
Finally, the public was asked how Israel should respond to Iran’s threatened aggression. Some 35% of Israelis said that Israel should carry out a limited campaign with the goal of achieving a diplomatic agreement with Hezbollah. Four percent had no opinion. And 61% said that Israel should not be limiting itself to defense but should respond to Iran’s threats with a preemptive strike to block Iran from attacking Israel.
The poll shows definitively that after 300 days of war, the Israeli public maintains its unswerving resolve to see the war through to victory. It is willing to pay whatever price is required to defeat its enemies and understands that there is no diplomatic solution to military problems, only military solutions.
Since you need to defeat your enemies to win a war, Israelis are uninterested in “diplomatic initiatives,” and seek offensive operations to defensive operations.
🟠 Saturday After Shabbat – ISRAEL REALTIME – Connecting to Israel in Realtime
August 3, 2024 @ 2:08 p.m. ET ISRAEL REALTIME
🔸DEAL NEWS.. Prime Minister’s Office: While Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to the outline, Hamas is trying to introduce dozens of changes that de facto nullify the outline. Hamas continues to demand the end of the war, the release of a minimal number of abductees, the ability to flood Gaza with weapons, retake control of it, and repeat the horrors of the 7th of October.
The Prime Minister did not add anything to the May 27 outline and continues to adhere to the basic conditions for Israel’s security: maximizing the release of the hostages alive, control of the Philadelphi border corridor, and prevention of the passage of terrorists and arms to the north of the Gaza Strip.
Anyone who offers to give in to Hamas demands in order to receive applause in the (TV) studios, harms the chances of the release of the hostages and leads back to the reality of the 6th of October.
▪️ISRAELIS TRYING TO GET BACK TO ISRAEL? In light of flight cancellations, the Department for Israelis Abroad at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs requests data regarding the location of concentrations of Israelis abroad who wish to return to Israel – through an online form. https://www.gov.il/he/pages/mfa-notice-to-israelis [Hebrew – not yet translated to English]
🔹A Russian source states: “America is preparing a severe blow to Iran in the event of an attack on Israel.”
.. (unconfirmed) B-2 strategic bombers have landed at a US military base in Qatar.
🔹Air Force on patrol, over Eilat and the south.
🔥LARGE WILDFIRE – JERUSALEM MOUNTAINS.. likely terror-arson, under control after much effort.
♦️BUSY IDF AIR ATTACK DAY.. The Air Force eliminated 9 terrorists in two counterattacks in Tulkarm – Samaria, 4 Hezbollah operatives near Tzur and on the Beirut-Damascus road, and 15 Gaza terrorists in a school in Gaza City, in a place that, according to the IDF, was used as a renovated Hamas training center and concentration of terrorists.
⭕ANTI-TANK MISSILE from HEZBOLLAH HITS SCHOOL.. in Metula. Empty, no casualties.
⭕6 rounds of ROCKETS from HEZBOLLAH at northern towns over Shabbat, but small (single town target) launches.
⭕4 rounds of ROCKETS from HAMAS at near Gaza towns.
⭕HOUTHI SHIP ATTACK in the RED SEA.. first in 2 weeks.
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August 3, 2024 @ 1:37 p.m. ET ISRAEL REALTIME – Shavua Tov! Wishing everyone a safe and secure week!
‼️The Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas, and the IRGC have established a war room to coordinate all moves against Israel and the US.
‼️Iran has stated, “The more the US deploys air defense systems, the more the number of Iranian missiles will double and increase, overcoming the air defense systems. Our response will be severe, and Israel has no way to escape the expected punishment.”
‼️There are unconfirmed reports that a B2 stealth bomber took off recently, potentially altering the situation in the Middle East.
‼️The Pentagon has ordered the deployment of 300 additional warplanes to the Middle East.
◾The Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that Delta, United Airlines, Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, and Air India have canceled all incoming flights to Israel.
◾The Russian Embassy in Lebanon has called on its citizens to leave the country and advised against travel to Lebanon.
◾The IRGC announced that Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by “firing a projectile with a warhead” weighing around 7.5 kg, resulting in a severe explosion.
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August 3, 2024 @ 1:39 p.m. ET Jewish Breaking News – The attack, set to occur between August 12 and 13, is reportedly being coordinated with Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terror group in Lebanon. The choice of Tisha B’Av, a day of mourning for Jews, aims to inflict emotional and psychological distress, suggesting that Jewish Israelis may feel particularly vulnerable.
The media coverage of the attack is intended to convey to the Islamic world that “Israel is vulnerable to destruction, as Jews have historically been.”
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